ABSTRACT
AIM: To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed). METHODS: We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R0 in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures on the course of the pandemic. The model was populated with the Delphi-panel results and varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-021-01566-2.
ABSTRACT
Background: Patients with atopic dermatitis (AD) frequently use healthy lifestyle behaviors, although their benefits are unclear. This study's aim was to investigate the effectiveness of hypnotherapy, fasting with diet adjustments, and exercise in AD patients. Methods: In a four-armed randomized controlled monocenter open explorative clinical trial, adult patients with mild-to-moderate severe AD underwent, over 16 weeks, a five-session hypnotherapy group program (HTP), a five-session intermittent fasting with diet adjustment group program (IFDP), a five-session exercise group program (EP), or no study intervention (control) as add-on to topical corticosteroid use if required. Endpoints included subjectively perceived itching on a visual analogue scale (VAS, 0-100 mm); disease severity by SCORing Atopic Dermatitis (SCORAD); and adverse events (AEs). Endpoints were analyzed descriptively in the Full Analysis Set (FAS). Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, relevant changes to the study protocol included online in addition to "in-presence" group interventions, closing the study arm EP and premature trial termination before randomization of 120 intended patients. Results: During the COVID-19 pandemic, study recruitment was poor. The FAS included 20 patients (17 female) with 35.0 ± 12.1 (mean ± standard deviation [SD]) years of age. At baseline, mean ± SD for HTP (n = 6), IFDP (n = 4), EP (n = 1), and control (n = 9) were VAS itching 63.2 ± 18.0, 65.0 ± 13.9, 43.0 mm, 62.1 ± 17.3; SCORAD 43.0 ± 13.6, 47.0 ± 21.0, 60.3, 39.1 ± 15.6. After 16 weeks, endpoints were VAS itching 26.0 ± 16.4, 31.7 ± 9.9, 23.0 mm, 39.3 ± 27.0; SCORAD 24.1 ± 12.2, 29.1 ± 19.1, 49.1, 25.5 ± 14.4. No serious AEs related to the interventions were observed. Conclusion: Despite very small groups, study results indicated potential beneficial changes to baseline in perceived itching intensity, disease severity, and disease-specific quality of life for HTP and IFDP. Therefore, further clinical trials should be performed investigating the effectiveness and safety of all interventions. Trial registration: January 31, 2020 German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS): DRKS00020557, Universal Trial Number (UTN): U1111-1247-1512.
ABSTRACT
During the COVID-19 pandemic, rehearsal and concert activities of professional orchestras and choirs were severely restricted based on the assumption of particularly high infection risks associated with wind instruments and singing. Therefore, our primary objective was to determine the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in orchestra and choir musicians compared to controls. We also assessed influenza, flu, upper respiratory tract infections, and course of illness. Musicians from professional orchestras and choirs and controls from 23 institutions throughout Germany were included in a prospective cohort study. Data were collected from October 2020 to June 2021 by weekly online surveys. A mixed-effects cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the effect of exposure by professional activity on SARS-CoV-2 infection. In 1,097 participants (46.7 years (SD 10.3); 46.8% female; 705 orchestra, 154 choir, and 238 control subjects) 40 SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred. Cases per person-years were 0.06 in orchestras, 0.11 in choirs, and 0.03 in controls. Hazard ratios compared to controls were 1.74 (95% CI 0.58 to 5.25, p = 0.320) for orchestra musicians and 2.97 (0.87 to 10.28, p = 0.087) for choir singers. Infection source was suspected predominantly in private contexts. Disease courses were mild to moderate. Other respiratory infections were reported in 6.1% of study weeks in orchestras, 10.1% in choirs, and 8.0% in controls. Sick leave days of total study days were 0.5, 2.1 and 1.3%, respectively. This epidemiologic study during the pandemic in professional musicians indicates no increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections in orchestra musicians and a trend towards increased risk in choir singers compared to controls. However, the exact routes of infection could not be validated. If appropriate hygiene concepts are adhered to, safe orchestra and choir activity appears possible in pandemic times.